Naresh Kumar

Naresh Kumar

Economist, World Bank Group

Peer-reviewed Publications

  • Private but Misunderstood? Evidence on Measuring Intimate Partner Violence via Self-Interviewing in Rural Liberia and Malawi, with Shilpa Aggarwal, Dahyeon Jeong, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot. World Bank Economic Review (forthcoming).

    Abstract
    Women may under-report intimate partner violence (IPV) in surveys. In an experiment in rural Liberia and Malawi, women were asked IPV questions via self-interviewing (SI) or face-to-face interviewing (FTFI). Many respondents appear to misunderstand questions in SI, and significant effects of SI were observed on innocuous placebo questions. Because the prevalence of IPV is typically well below 50%, such measurement error will tend to bias IPV reporting upwards. Indeed, the results show that SI increases reported incidence of IPV, but it cannot be ruled out that these increases are spurious.

  • Shortening the Path to Productive Investment: Evidence from Input Fairs and Cash Transfers in Malawi, with Shilpa Aggarwal, Dahyeon Jeong, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot. Journal of Development Economics 170: 103288.

    Abstract
    While cash transfers consistently show large effects on immediate outcomes like consumption, limited access to markets may mute their impact on productive investment. In an experiment in Malawi, we cross-cut cash transfers with an ‘‘input fair’’, designed to reduce transport costs to access agricultural inputs. Cash alone increases investment by 27%, while the joint provision of cash and the input fair increases investment by about 40%; thus, the incremental effect of the input fair is equivalent to about a 50% increase compared to the effect of cash alone. Input fairs alone were ineffective.

  • Exhaustive or Exhausting? Evidence on Respondent Fatigue in Long Surveys, with Shilpa Aggarwal, Dahyeon Jeong, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot. Journal of Development Economics 161: 102992.

    Abstract
    Living standards measurement surveys require sustained attention for several hours. We quantify survey fatigue by randomizing the order of questions in 2–3 hour-long in-person surveys. An additional hour of survey time increases the probability that a respondent skips a question by 10%–64%. Because skips are more common, the total monetary value of aggregated categories such as assets or expenditures declines as the survey goes on, and this effect is sizeable for some categories: for example, an extra hour of survey time lowers food expenditures by 25%. We find similar effect sizes within phone surveys in which respondents were already familiar with questions, suggesting that cognitive burden may be a key driver of survey fatigue.

  • Did COVID-19 Market Disruptions Disrupt Food Security? Evidence from Households in Rural Liberia and Malawi, with Shilpa Aggarwal, Dahyeon Jeong, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot. PLoS ONE 17(8): e0271488.

    Abstract
    We use data collected from panel phone surveys to document the changes in food security of households in rural Liberia and Malawi during the market disruptions associated with the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. We use two distinct empirical approaches in our analysis: (a) an event study around the date of the lockdowns (March to July 2020), and (b) a difference-in-differences analysis comparing the lockdown period in 2020 to the same months in 2021, in order to attempt to control for seasonality. In both countries, market activity was severely disrupted and we observe declines in expenditures. However, we find no evidence of declines in food security.

Working Papers

  • The Dynamic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Rural Liberia and Malawi, with Shilpa Aggarwal, Jenny Aker, Dahyeon Jeong, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot. Revise & Resubmit (2nd round), AEJ: Applied. 2025.

    Abstract
    Little is known about the evolution and persistence of the effects of one-time cash transfers, especially in rural agricultural settings with limited productive investment opportunities. We use bi-monthly phone surveys to estimate dynamic impacts for cash transfer recipients in Liberia and Malawi. We find immediate increases in food security that attenuate over time but do not entirely dissipate even 1.5-2 years later, driven by increased farm investments and production. We find increases in farm profits, reductions in casual off-farm labor, improvements in psychological well-being, and, in Liberia, a reduction in IPV.

  • Going the Extra Mile: Farm Subsidies and Spatial Convergence in Agricultural Input Adoption, with Shilpa Aggarwal, Dahyeon Jeong, Rolly Kapoor, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot. 2025.

    Abstract
    Many countries subsidize agricultural inputs but require farmers to travel to retailers to access them, just as for normal purchases. What effect do travel costs have on subsidy take-up and input usage, particularly for remote farmers? We analyze Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP), and find that travel-cost-adjusted prices are substantially higher in remote areas, due almost entirely to increased travel costs. Nevertheless, subsidy redemption is nearly universal and only modestly lower in remoteareas, suggesting that these travel costs are not enough to dissuade redemption. We evaluate the effect of FISP on spatial adoption, by utilizing a policy change which centralized beneficiary selection, and find that FISP substantially mitigates the sizeable remoteness gradient that exists for non-beneficiaries. Our results demonstrate that subsidy programs may narrow spatial inequities.

IMF Working Papers and Book Chapters

Current Research Agenda

My current work is organized around:

  • Technology and AI: task-based and distributional impacts of AI and automation on employment, job quality, and inequality.
  • Green transition and jobs: employment reallocation and job quality implications of decarbonization policies and green structural change.
  • Care economy: childcare and eldercare, unpaid care burdens, and implications for female labor force participation and care-related job creation.